Saturday, July 11, 2009

Second Stimulus, Confidence numbers

How interesting that the US markets last night resembled the drinking session we had~!

Started the session off with a lot of hope, even showing some promise on the middle rounds of drinks, and even the final teaser, before really dropping off and seeming like a mediocre night in the end.

The last three sessions in the AUS and US markets have both been of this nature - no real action.

Last night's confidence numbers were quite horrific - I was actually anticipating a higher reading due to Australia's confidence numbers coming out better than expected earlier in the week (I know it's a fallible assumption). Given how bad the numbers were, the markets probably didn't drop as much as you would've expected.

The key talk of the week has been a need for second stimulus in the States, and this is definitely keeping a lid on higher prices.

Oil failed to make any sort of rebound at the key 60 dollar level, and it really looks like it might just drop to 50 - I'm still really peeved at how I got stopped out of my WPL position - I would be killing it if I had held on just one more day.

The upcoming weak might see RIO and BHP falling again - given how the the rebound in commodity prices are becoming more like a blip, and the Baltic index is really showing some red lights too. The talks of execs from RIO doing the dodgy isn't surprising, although it's really makes me wonder how much dodgy sh1t they were doing to get caught - usually the dodginess is expected but surely you gotta have the limits that will allow you to at least stay under the radar.

Next week's strategy is probably to find try a Long RIO/Short BHP (with a bias to the short side) trade or the other way around - not sure whether to bet on continuing negative sentiment in RIO, or to go with the probabilities of the technical rebound.