Wednesday, September 23, 2009

IF you had to bet your House

If you had to bet on the demise of one industry as a whole, which would it be??

Financial sector? Close but unlikely, not the way the govt keeps throwing money at it and the brokers keep re-rating the sector. Better that finance stays alive; if the finance industry closed down, you'll have all the finance guys working our second hand car dealers, and boy, we don't need more lemons in our economy.

so... I would like to bet ALLLRIN my house (the one I don't have) on the...

PRINT MEDIA INDUSTRY !

Media itself isn't dead, but the delivery method will most definitely be redefined in the next few years; as soon as all the media moguls figure out how to make money off the free-riding internet model. Print media might be going extinct faster than Paris's Paparrazzi appeal (trashier b-graders out there making more explicit s3x tapes).

So how does a monkey with no brains, and a dart to throw at the equity board of consumer discretionary stocks make money out of this situation ?

Well u short PRINT MEDIA with all the chump change you've got (warning, it may take 5-10 years for the stocks to go to ZERO);
WAN (with the likes of SAGE running WA, i wonder if WA media even gets any respect !)
APN (who cares about regional papers anyways?)

Do some of that nonsense buy-write strategy on diversified Media and TV which is going nowhere fast (revenues don't come out of thin air, unless your ENRON)- until some hyped up media release on how they are making money off twitter and facebook (it might be 5 years before these donkey's figure that out)
NWS, MMG, SEV, TEN

Do some short/long strategies on consolidating MEDIA, i.e foxtel vs Austar
long CMJ/short AUN - banking on the fact, that media moguls usually have too much clout and pride to make anything economical rational work; but if they do, the monopoly of foxtel will more than likely make up the future generations it has to sell to own it.

So basically, you put half your bankroll onto the short bet WAN, APN; and whilst that bet squeezes all the faith you have in this long shot thesis, you buy time with the buy-write strategies, and you hope that maybe your wild card strategy of long/short will offer better than 1% returns, in the case where you lose it all on the above two strategies.