Thursday, October 8, 2009

Losing Continues - Lack of Preparation

I had been confused as the the strength of the market given that RBA hiked rates on tuesday, but it all made sense today when the U/E figures came out better than expected - obviously RBA had known of this little data, and picked the most opportunie moment to start the easing process. It's pretty obvious now that Australia never really went into recession; although it remains to be seen how global weakness will affect the prices in the coming weeks.

So I came in today looking at technicals and basically got a view that all the technicals would be flat/weak for the day - a flat lead from US to boot.

The charts confirmed that the market may be weaker today, after a very hot session yesterday, but I failed to note that today's economic numbers for AUSSIE unemployment were coming out.

This lack of preparation pretty much caught me off guard when the number came in at 5.7% way, below the 5.9% forecasted, but moreover a huge psychological changer, when you're going against US u/e trends (last week's u/e numbers in US were really bad).

What I see happening now is a divergence in performance between the US and the AUS economy, and this will be reflected over the next few sessions.

I traded MQG and BHP short due to early weakness, but the data made it obvious that I Needed to close out the shorts, at losses contained at $45 and $25 on each trade, however, I missed the opportunity to long the index on such good economic data, and an easy 30 points, which would've snapped my current losing streak of 13 losing trades in a row.

If it wasn't for my long positions in LGL, PDN, TEL, I would be in a world of hurt.