Saturday, March 13, 2010

Week Wrap

My Current Positions

gff long/ ccl short
atvi long/ tech100 short
lgl long/ ccl short
eur long / sp500 short
wmh long

Current Macro Themes

US Markets
The US market has been up 9 days in a row, has only happed 3 times in the past. The volumes have been miniscule, and this is the key divergence that is favouring a correction over the next week.

Euro
Net euro short positions are surging, even with the current Greece situation being 'resolved' - I'm taking the contrarian play here by going long with the Sp500 short as a gap play.

Oil
Oil has made a good run in the last 2 weeks - rising to $82 - at this point, the price seems toppy

Gold
Bullish on gold, my exposure on LGL did decently this week, I'll close off the position as soon as CCL gets closer to breakeven.
The storyline is simple enough to follow: (1) precious metals represent the only true store of value; (2) the US has "printed" up trillions upon trillions of dollars of "money" whose only value is the perceived value of a public accustomed to fiat money (3) the US, like so many countries throughout human history, will see inflation take hold and cause the value of real money to soar.

UK Markets
Looks very shaky - some strategists predicting it to be the next country with it's AAA to be downgraded as budget deficits are 13pc, this could adversely affect the WMH position - but I'm hoping that WMH will have a good price run-up before any of these sovereign risks affects the stock materially.

Resources
China's inflation has started making headlines this week - something that isn't suprising, given it's appetite for commodities over the past year - this is likely to affect equities negatively.
Gas sectors seems to be rising, given AOE's takeover offer from Shell, STO, AGK are all being bidded higher.