Saturday, April 17, 2010

Weekly Wrap

US
- last night US fell erasing all gains of last week, this is going to be good for my heavily weighted book towards the shorts. The downmove was on huge volume, could see a bearish week.
- the downswing were lead by google's earnings not satisfying the market and goldman getting sold off due to the SEC charging Goldman for fraud (about time) - the major stocks rolling over is usually the first sign of market weakness.

Globally
- Greece got the much needed bailout, and the price of the EUR recovered back above it's lows; however risks remain due to the costs of borrowing being so high.
- China's economic numbers were encouraging but the figures are showing signs of inflationary pressures - and the markets are selling off.
- China seems to be stockpiling and the baltic index is not rising inline with the increasing resource prices.

Oil
Has broken above it's resistence, but don't see many compelling reasons for the price to continue to make new highs

Gold
Continues to perform solidly - although the next week will determine it's intermediate trend; i think the next week will show a bias to the downside in Gold - the Paulson story is taking a gold on short term sentiment.

AUD
risk currencies are now looking toppy in the short term - this coming week should set the tone.

Positions
VIX - Vix spiked on Friday as expected - my entry was beautifully timed
CCL short/ GFF long; still painfully in the red.
UStec short/ ATVI long - ATVI got ripped this week, this position is starting to take on water.
SP500 short - finally the turnaround that I expected, might short some more, if the downtrend begins
long CIL - bullish gaming
short WAN - short media
short ANN - short technicals
long UNS - healthcare; defensives

total leveraged exposure: $48480