Saturday, May 29, 2010

Mind Flipping Disaster Recovery

I got hacked into a few days ago, so I've been offline for 2 days, that's 2 days longer than i've ever been offline for the past few years. I take full responsibility for getting trojaned, i had no virus program, and I had win7 with all the user account settings at the minimum security.

If it wasn't for the online and evernote, I would've lost my most valuable files and writing - even though I lost 95% of all my data, I realised only 5% of what I have is actually worth anything to me.

A good part of losing everything and starting again, is the processes that you revise as you re-build your computer software - how to make it more efficient, and how to keep things simplified, and also how to make sure your next 'disaster scenario' is quickly resolved.

sp500 made a much expected short term bounce (based on my previous posts about VIX, technicals, euro) - and it was a great trading play if you had the balls to load up on wednesday with longs.
The economic news is still slowly getting better, despite the stalemate nature of unemployment.

My Strategy

This week saw some light trading, due to 2 days of inaction, with my biggest position coming in the form of
140 long NCM, with a hedged 50 short of MQG - I closed off my MQG short and held onto NCM, and will probably get stopped out on Monday.

My current bleeder is GNS, as it's fallen from 51c to 26c in a matter of 2 weeks - I just managed to get the losses to moderate levels as the stock recovered to 40c as the chairmen gets ousted. How interesting the chairman's name was Mr Gay - gay indeed.

FGL has announced a spin off - and spin off's are historically and awesome profitable opportunity (refer to greenblatt's book), but there is time for research as But it was unlikely until the first half of calendar 2011 . Stock has jumped to 5.50 after lingering near 5.15 - I think any price below 5.35 would be good 1 year investment given how much value will be likely to be unlocked in this spinoff. Great long term buy.

Playing the long side is getting very dangerous with all the technical damage done in the past few weeks. Tomorrow I will write up a post of a few potential short candidates, based on sector analysis.

Spain's downgrade was another concern to the budding euro issues (link)

However, the euro is still holding up decently at 1.22 and this may be a turning point.

Oil rebounded at $70 just as I had expected - A little disappointed that I got out of my long WPL position - one that would've been profitable if I had been more patient.

has recovered rapidly - the downtrend may be over, but depends on global risk appetite, if investors continue to de-risk then AUD is like to test high 70's before it comes back around.

interesting article on why Gold might hit 3000 link