Saturday, June 5, 2010

ALL trades are based in probabilities, never certainties

Overnight Markets


Got smashed last night and down 1,064.88 -3.46% due to crap job report, and europe continuing to be ugly.

If jobs are not getting better with the liquidity in the US as high as it is, this is a very troubling prospect for equity markets over the next few months.

A respectable commentator had expected the number to be good - whilst maintaining a bearish equity view. This had been the general consensus.
This makes for a very interesting reaction when everyone is thinking that the numbers will be good as economic data had been good in the past few weeks - then when we undershoot expectations, we get a huge reaction to the downside.

Gold, Oil, AUD
Gold seems to be holding ground despite the overall market sell-off, Oil has resumed it's downtrend as expected, and AUD is also looking to break the support recently established around the 82c mark - this definitely feels like a bear market.

My current bias towards the downside saw added positions in the sector I feel has the current downtrend momentum, RETAIL -
I added to shorts in JB hi-fi, and Seek; due for short term momentum trades.

I feel very under-invested, with only 30k total leveraged positions, and I'll add more to these positions next week, need to take larger positions, or research into more opportunities.

Feel a little sheepish that I didn't hold onto my short exposures that I had - including my short ASX200 position that got stopped out for $132 profit. I had ample opportunity to re-enter the trade, but I wasn't trading the overnight markets.

the merger portfolio contains ORI and GNS, and these are more intermediate holdings.

My Current Portfolio

Longs: gff, ctp, fmg, ori, gns, atvi = $18,717
Shorts: ccl, SEK, JBH = 13366.5