Saturday, January 29, 2011

Egypt Protests: Spurious Correlations?

Media loves to make spurious correlations to market actions.
- the market is linking the egypt protests to the current sell-off...EGYPT...? ARE U FCKING KIDDING ME? when was the last time egypt meant anything?

If the finance intellectuals are consistently mocking the technical analysts out there, then the media deserves some shellacking for their over sensationalist approach to linking what the crowd loves to read, verses what it takes to actually bank some coin in this market.

The market had the largest one day sell-off in the past 2 months, the sp500 coming off 1.79%, and nasdaq off 2.48%. That's the only line that needs to be reported, and it doesn't take an overpriced journalist to read the price print off a screen.

I've been trying to short asx200 and sp500 the past week, and managed to position myself decently for Friday's selloff.

I had shorted 10 contracts @ 1299 - mainly based on technicals, and a potential gdp print being below expectations.

I have euro short @ the 1.37 mark - I had 70,000 worth, then decided to sleep better by reducing it to 30,000 - whilst the market is giving me some love, a 1k win last night would've made tonight's sleep a lot better.

I have the option of pressing my bets during the week - which I will consider, given how the macro environment continues to stay muted - australia coming in with even lower gdp expectations from qld floods than originally anticipated, britain putting in a dogsh1t growth number, japan getting downgraded. Remember, the thief may mug you in the dark alley, but many times, they can drop in just in the comfort of your sleep.

I have started playing some small stakes tourneys in poker again, and i've already doubled my bankroll - scoring a 3.4k win, and a 1k win in the past few weeks, my trading results have correspondingly become more disciplined and consistent - I'm taking my losses in trading a lot less emotionally, given that poker provides a lot more emotional suckouts; risk management is probably the one thing that keeps you alive in poker.

I blew up in the nfl fund the past week, which was a shame, a jets, or chicago final would've put us well into profit - but instead we decided to go for the jugular, and came up empty.