Thursday, April 14, 2011

Tactics

I've been trying to time a correction for the past week, with not much success.

I tried shorting the ASX 2 days ago, stopped out for a 20 point loss, before yesterday's 90 point fall.
I tried shorting AUD for a large position, getting stopped out for my largest yearly loss, before the AUD falls 2c due to reappearing risk off sentiments coming in a few days late.

As they say, being early is the same as being wrong, and in the case of short trading days, and tight stops, the more likely you are to be wrong.

I have no idea how far this correction goes...

Plan of Portfolio Tactics:
short the euro (although US dollar weakness remains the key risk to this trade http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/04/12/dollar-has-come-down-with-a-heavy-cold/ and obviously yield differentials http://blogs.reuters.com/eric-burroughs/2011/04/11/the-carry-trade-never-dies/), then short some oil if the correction continues, buy some QAN as AUD increases travel appetite locally (or US airlines to take advantage of AUD ARM(http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2011/04/11/put-your-head-between-your-legs-and-kiss-your-airlines-goodbye/) lower oil prices: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/04/12/guess-what-transports-love-lower-oil-prices-shocker/?) on the correction and get my long term leveraged positions into MACAU stocks. Whether the positioning will occur sequentially or concurrently we'll have to wait and see how fast the market decides to move (as well as the peripheral newsflow).

On another interesting note:
what to do what to do about the paladin and uranium??