Monday, April 4, 2011

Week Ahead

The current reflex rally since the Japanese crisis has been swift and v-shaped. The market is now reaching a decision point as to whether the new highs can be sustained, or we are just at a range bound state.

Current Pros:
- US payrolls and unemployment numbers are continuing to show improvements
- Japanese situation seems under control
- The Libya tensions have been easing due to the US/Nato intervention; however, oil continues upwards.

Current Cons:
- euro zone debt is still an issue.
- high oil and commoditiy prices have to be inflationary at some point.
- interest rates are rising across the global board, and US is just 1 or 2 qtrs away from being forced it's hand.
- market rising on low volumes - however, this has been not that important in the past few upswings.

Current Asset Movers:
- Oil, AUD, Gold all seem to be the fast movers in the past week, with AUD making v. strong highs - how far and long this will last is worth watching.

Current Newsflows
- The ECB and the RBA meetings are this week, might need to keep a finger on the trigger and plan some trades around this.

Trade Ideas:
- looking to load up on some macau stocks if the market gives me a shot