Tuesday, June 7, 2011

The Frail Markets, Where Shall You Run?

I've been on a few weeks break from writing due to my CFA studies, but I'm back now.

Firstly, the sp500 had hit the 1300 target that I had expected, but given how it retested and then fell through in the past 2 weeks, this is indicates a strong price action, in which I plan to hold my short position, which is also a hedge in my overall portfolio. I have moved my stops to lower, so it should be ok, the markets seem to be in sync with lower risk for the time being.

Euro staged a huge rally based on the on again off again greece and portugal debt issues. After seeing a low near 1.40, a swift rebound to 1.46, has allowed a new swing short position to be set. Short at 1.46379 with a 1.40 target. I plan to load up 2 more contracts if the move continues.

AUD is in a doghouse due to it's economic data likely to put a cap on the interest rate hikes for the time being. Employment ads fell, housing data was weak, and retail data is subdued. I see AUD heading below 1.05, and may hit the 1.00 - 1.02 level in which depending the US economic situation will re-evaluate.