Monday, July 11, 2011

Aussie Carbon Tax - Summary

The carbon tax will largely be borne directly by a narrow number of companies and sectors.

According to the 2010 NGER data, 90% of emissions are generated by 6 sectors:
  • Utilities 48%
  • Metal and mining 25%
  • Energy 7%
  • Steel 4%
  • Building materials 3%
  • Transport & logistics 3%

The table below largely breaks this impact out by company. This shows our estimates of the first year (FY13) earnings
impact assuming 0%, 66% and 94.5% compensation or pass through at the corporate level on total earnings (excluding
any additional assistance packages outside of free permits). This is a first take and provides a high level assessment
of the relative impact by sector and company.

Stocks like Bluescope (BSL), Onesteel (OST), Alumina (AWC) and Virgin Blue (VBA) were some of the hardest hit
In contrast, some of the winners were Infigen Energy +7%, Geodynamics +22%, Ceramic Fuels +8% and Carnegie
Wave Energy +22%.