Monday, September 26, 2011

Now is the Time to go All in the Euro - Trade 1112


I have been a sucker for the dips the past few weeks, and my performance has been horrible. However, during this time, they were 'feeler bets' into the market, and with nothing biting, I had nothing to write home about - i.e I wouldn't dare to post those trades onto my blog.

However, I have now setup a trade, which I feel the probability of it's move just too high - the EURO - the current sell-off has been unabated, and now we see a potential for a reversal, at least a relief rally that will feed the chooks for a few days.

I expect the retail pitchfork traders will make one last hurrah at the last line of defense, the 1.34 is a huge support level, one that comes just in time with the current urging of all stakeholders to the european political leaders to make a move, and to make it fast. We have the fib level on the weekly, a weekly rising price, and the lower end of the support in the hourly, and currently the 10minute has failed to show strong follow through near the 1.34 - the europe open is likely to show us the market's hand, so we set up and wait a few hours to see how it goes.

I take my stand at 1.3411 - 4 contracts, which have a v. tight stop just below 1.34 and I'll trade half out at 1.35, and try to ride the rest up to 1.39 - which is the bottom of the last breakdown range.

Once again, if the price falls through 1.34 - we may need to see some crisis of epic proportions to see the 1.30 level - no matter how likely that seems right now, my bet is that the market is crying wolf just one last time.