Friday, November 11, 2011

Some notes of the Headlines - and Themes for the QTR

- USD has been performing quite well against the euro and AUD however, equity markets have held up reasonably well given the past correlations.

- I am currently bullish on Gold and Oil - however the USD strength may be a headwind against performance. The gold equities that I have positions in NCM, KCN, ABG all have underperformed the past 2 weeks of the Gold's rally and that's really hurting my book.

- I have taken very quick losses on the intraday swings the past 2 weeks - namely I was going long on the AUD and EUR at the beginning of the asian session, and getting stopped out by euro open. The frustrating part was seeing the US close usually end up flat.

- The sell-off with the positive closes on consecutive sessions on Friday, Monday to Tue - lead me to remain fairly positive on risk, and then we saw a 50 point sell-off in the sp500 on spiking Italian yields - going over the proverbial 7% line in the sand - but quickly falling back below that level the next day.

- It seems to me that the market is giving so many fake signals that staying put on your themes and not getting whipped out from intra-day swings is a key to protecting your portfolio; the tweet/blog post by 'the fly' that I retweeted sums up my past two weeks of trading action accurately.

- I have stay true on my holdings for my core themes Gold/Macau/Tech/ASX banks and have started to offload the ASX banks and slowly overweight into Macau - as they have sold off hard in the current uncertainty around Italy.

- Given that we've seen confirming neutral to slightly positive economic data - employment numbers in Aus and US were both O.K and china inflation was 5.5% - slowing; combined with fairly good earnings - we are looking at a very good backdrop for equity prices in the next quarter AS soon as the world starts to stop acting scared about the uncertainty in Europe.