Thursday, March 8, 2012

Greece Default and the % that Define How We See it

Last night we saw a pledge of about 107bnEUR in pledges, 52% of the 206bn in bonds up for restructuring.

At 8pm GMT tonight how many more have accepted the bond-swap offer.

1. 95% accept - this would allow a purely voluntary restructuring to go ahead.
2. Forced Deal - between 66-90% accept the deal, Athens steps in and imposes the deal on the others.  Ratings agency has declared that Greece will be in default if this coercive element is involved.
3. Less than 66% accepting the approval will lead to a disorderly default.  This will be a big problem as the 130bn bailout funds will not be released without a deal.