Wednesday, April 18, 2012

ASX bounces back - finally clears 4300 convincingly

BHP seems to be bouncing, and markets are bouncing today as I had thought would occur, if we are still in a bullish price action.  If the miners can lead this current breakout of the 4300 range - then we're going to see the highs of 2010.

Last night we saw the recovery in the US despite mixed eco data - weaker housing data reversing the trends of the past month.  We saw some notable price action to the downside in GS after earnings came in with a beat - but obviously the market is disappointed with their future earnings based on their scaling back of risk in their operations.  Earnings reports this quarter and how traders respond to these reports will be very interesting to see.

On the global macro front, IMF revised their global growth outlook upwards to 3.5% from 3.3%, and the spain bond auctions did well enough that it allayed some fears of continuing euro risk.

As for specific stock ideas, other than the Aussie miners, I'm looking at a rebound in HPQ - which beat the sales of apple in the PC space in the last quarter, and a long position at ATVI with the upcoming release of diablo 3 - which will see a flurry of pre-orders online, and depending on the hype, we will see a large spike in the shares in the next 3 weeks leading up to the 15 may release date.  The price in ATVI is retracing to 12.20 which is area of entry as it bounces off the moving average with a target of 13.50 or 15 May whichever comes first.