Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Global PMIs and the Case for December

Fiscal cliff is dragging out like last year, however unlike last year, we aren't seeing the big drawdowns, and less volatility in the past few weeks.  We may get a 2-5% spike if we get some progress on this point.
Construction spending was up, but ISM was 49.5 down from 51.2
UK pmi improved to 49.1 but still below 50.
Brazil pmi jumps to 52.2 a 20 month high.
German PMI was 46.8
Greece offered to buy back 10bn Euros in buying bonds

Very interesting article on alternative asset claims in poker http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/12/03/alternative-asset-of-the-day-poker-claims/ . The poker industry is one that I have been researching in the past, and am still awaiting the federal regulations of online poker in the US for my position in bwin.partygaming.  

Asset class performance - I am going to begin 2013 with allocated funds into emerging market and US High Yield bonds.  Always be careful with high yield bonds a good piece http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20121202/REG/312029993 .  I may take a more conservative stance and add the the asset allocations through asset classes that do well in low volatility, but fairly muted equity performance.

December is good for stocks 

Looking for a position in AMD, after it started to breakout from the downtrend on the news that it would sell and lease back its Austin Campus for $150-200m.