Thursday, January 31, 2013

Positions in Risk Assets, US Equities



Earnings continue to beat, Facebook eps 17c.   Even when earnings don't beat, like AMZN, we get 8% spikes higher.  
GDP in the US was lower, but payrolls higher, and we saw a small selloff in the market.  The trend of bullishness could continue after a small retracement.  


I opened a few positons  last night:
AGRO, GLD, GLD options, NBR, INTC, AAPL.

Firstly, I exited the SBT position that I had held for 3 years, and put my invested position down to 70%, so I was looking to put some capital to work.  I could've held out for the trade completion, but I wanted to get positioned in the current market bullishness, as it breaks the 1500 mark, and will probably see another 10% by mid year.

I will be adding positions US equities, as I want to make a quasi bet against the AUD falling in 2013.

Apple is the interesting play here.  How a stock could fall out of favour so fast is both amusing and an opportunity.  There are some changes occuring in the tech space, obviously with the market darlings of yesterday like DELL and HPQ have taken big hits in the price, but I feel that Apple can't be measured on the same category of PC sales are falling, competition in the tablet space is increasing.  I do agree that it's earnings will slowdown, but the contention must be at what pace; and how will the company find ways to continue to milk it's current design of products.  I don't want to dwell on it too much at the moment, but I've added a position as of yesterday and will probably hold it at least 3 months.

I added INTC on the technology play, another sector driven by falling PC demands, but now looks like a good short term trade, as it bounces from it's lows.

Gold has been one on my radar, and I took a loss on my KCN position at 4.96 to 4.18, as it fell fast and hard after it's earnings reports and downgrade.  I was positioned with a small bet, and have no transfer my bullishness of Gold into GLD etf and Jan 2015 long call options on GLD.

NBR has been the other trade that I had been trying to get into along with CHK, as we see the energy market starting to recover through natural gas.  CHK has gotten away from me, too fast too soon, so