Saturday, May 11, 2013

Back to Bulls

Haven't had much time to blog due to my CFA study commitments.  After the exam I'll post more links.

My views in the past two weeks have changed from expecting a pullback to adding back my equity positions.  Even weaker economic data points have been bought by equities.  The seasonal expectation of selling in May isn't working either.  Weaker revenue guidance into weaker price action is all being bought by the dip buyers.  Can't remain bearish when the price sentiment action tells us otherwise.

I added BHP, LEI, SBY, GLRE back into my portfolio this week.  Closed by AMZN short and now only have LULU short and some SPY puts.

The AUD is falling off heavily hitting close to 1.00 after some of the factors that I had expected earlier this year.  The key points are - the lowering of the AUD cycle continuing, whilst the US rate monetary cycle is now flattening.  The economic prospects of the US are slowly recovery whilst the Aus economic cycle is now peaking.  I had originally tried to capitalise on this expectation with a long position in the USO and adding to my US equity positions.  I got stopped out of my USD long positions and somehow kept trying to short too much US equity.