Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Afternoon CrapChat

So the perspectives on the market are now bordering semi manic and to some overexposed bulls, slightly denial related problematic.

The problem with market turning points, as with all things in life, it's impossible to time the first time you try. However, like the thief in the night that takes precaution to allow only the sleepless to ever be known, the start of a new downtrend will always happen in the momentary brain lull that blinds even the best minds.

Let's do some simple spatial analysis, look at the ALL chart, it has taken all of 1.5 weeks, to wipe off the slow painful gains of 12 weeks, and imo, with the worst still to come - this ain't a pullback, this sh1t is mice jumping off the ship be sinkin.

I set up some more shorts that aren't paired this morning, Trade 164 UGL 250@13.64, Trade 165 ASX 100@35.15, I have no clue as to what UGL does, but it's one Y away from UGLY so I'll trade first, ask Y later.

Macro trading wise, I like aitken's advice and play mice with those that dominate rice - sell steel and deal the meal (buy food related stocks, AWB) . I also like the gold double down, blackjack style, hit up some lgl and ncm and you got a 4 week lock in case the AUD keeps spiking. To protect against AUD piking, go short some Flight Centre (FLT) which is purely AUD related rise, and everytime I walk past the local FLT, there's 5 fat chaps, doing less work than I - except they burning a hole in corporate expenses to the tune of 250k per year - multiply that by half the 300 FLTs that probably are empty too, and you got a big fckin hole to worry about.

I still hate paper print, who the fck reads newspapers, short the bleets out of print media, I'm talking the ones where the population in a state is more like a country club - i.e Western Australia (WAN).

And finally the good old Aussie banks - NAB has been the first to release earnings, and they've come in ahead of forecasts, but are getting sold off, in bear sentiment like fashion, in the words of 'Fly' get your balls of the chopping board.

The velocity in the last few day's price falls have been predictive and violent. Get your sunscreen ready.