Tuesday, March 11, 2014

SODA and TGA long

After getting panic position in short AMZN and long USD and subsequently taking losses I re-added more longs the very next day when Putin did a 180 on his war stance, which lead to markets hitting new highs.  I added SODA long and TGA long.  TGA long was on a earnings drop where the price fell to 7.00 and my price to go long didn't hit at 6.98 so I took a market long at 7.23 and the stock ended closing near 7.50 and still floating above that price.  

SODA ended up being a stock I've wanted to get back into long for a long time after selling prematurely at 38.  When I saw the nice bids near 39 and I was able to get long as soon as the war threat was removed at 39.71 and now sitting at 42.71 threatening to break the channel higher.

The market's tape is still bullish, despite all the worries of extended valuations.  Without a catalyst for a short term retracement (like the threat of war, and the continuing threat of war) it's better to stay strong and long on the positions with a dash of hedge and a lot of diversification.  Another very obvious bullish point is the continuing earnings from companies are staying strong (although the ones that miss are being punished very heavily).

Positions in Agriculture and Gold would've dragged your performance last year, but in 2014, these are the beautiful sharpe ratio enhancers, providing a good negative correlation on the down days and providing a lot of positive momentum in prices.

I closed my JO (coffee) position after getting set in 2013.  The position was losing money for a whole year, grinding lower; but all the lost ground was made back in a few weeks plus my required return.

I added to my QAG position, we are seeing a turnaround in soft commodity prices, party due to what I believe are seasonal effects and partly due to the re-rating after the droughts in brazil seeing softs being bid.  QAG position was long at 10.82.